El Niño Stress and Water-Management Adaptations in Cacao and Strawberry Production: An AI-Enabled Water–Food Nexus Assessment in the Tropical Andes

<p>Agricultural adaptation to El Niño can change water requirements and resource pressures across the Water–Energy–Food–Ecosystems (WEFE) Nexus, yet contrasting crops are rarely compared under a common climatic reference. We applied an AI-enabled WEFE digital twin to ten cacao farms (11.61 ha) in northern Cauca and two independent five-plot strawberry cohorts (0.50 ha each) in Paispamba, Colombia. A complete 2025 meteorological record defined S0; synthetic S+2 and S+4 climate perturbations were applied to that reference. Annual gross irrigation requirement (GIR) increased from 8.66 mm to 61.64 and 102.41 mm in strawberry and from 334.87 to 553.80 and 796.74 mm in cacao. With crop-specific S0 monthly gross allocations held constant, potential gaps reached 85.9–91.5% of scenario GIR in strawberry and 39.5–58.0% in cacao. Improved strawberry irrigation efficiency (STR-PRS) reduced GIR by 17.8% and 13.0% in S+2 and S+4, whereas a shade-adjusted cacao crop coefficient (CAC-AFS) reduced GIR by 36.4% and 33.5%. Separately, an illustrative 10 m³ strawberry tank could contribute 29.14 and 31.58 m³ of gross irrigation water per 0.10 ha in S+2 and S+4, equivalent to 47.3% and 30.8% of uncompensated GIR without an additional delivery-loss factor. Enlarging cacao infiltration trenches from 50 to 250 m³ ha⁻¹ increased potential root-zone retention by 65.85 and 36.70 m³ ha⁻¹ at an assumed 10% daily infiltration rate. Storage and retention figures are conditional water-balance sensitivities, not measured deliveries or reductions in crop-water demand. Observed harvests were not used as simulated yield responses. The findings distinguish demand-side adaptation from seasonal water buffering and identify the need for coupled daily water-balance and field validation.</p>