Patterns and growth dynamics of the plantation sector in South Sumatra, Indonesia

The plantation sector is a crucial pillar of South Sumatra Province’s economic structure, as it contributes significantly to the Gross Regional Domestic Product. Therefore, an in-depth study of its growth dynamics and shifts in regional structure is necessary. This study aimed to identify production characteristics, area, commodity growth, and changes in the plantation sectoral structure across regencies/cities in South Sumatra. Using secondary data from Central Statistics Indonesia and the Plantation Office for 2021-2025, this study applied quantitative descriptive methods through percentage analysis, growth analysis, and a shift-share approach to examine the competitive position of each plantation commodity. The analysis showed that palm oil, rubber, and coffee are the dominant commodities in both production and spatial distribution, while coconut and cocoa make more limited contributions. The growth analysis for 2021-2025 indicated that coconut (0.025) and coffee (0.023) recorded positive growth, while palm oil (-0.019), rubber (-0.053), and cocoa (-0.021) experienced negative growth. Shift-share analysis further revealed that palm oil (Cij = 2,161,960.89), rubber (Cij = 374,948.27), and cocoa (Cij = 337.51) possessed positive regional competitive advantages, whereas coconut (Cij = -249.30) and coffee (Cij = -6,770.39) exhibited negative competitive values and remained concentrated in limited production areas. These findings indicate a dualistic plantation structure in South Sumatra, where a limited number of commodities function as regional growth drivers while others remain stagnant and require revitalisation. The results provide an empirical basis for local governments to strengthen leading commodities, improve plantation productivity, and formulate differentiated commodity development policies according to regional potential and competitiveness. These findings provide a strategic basis for local governments to strengthen the development of leading commodities, increase area productivity, and design differentiated policies according to the potential and dynamics of each district