From Data to Decisions: The Sustainable Food Chain Model for Systemic Environmental Modelling in Food Systems

Achieving sustainable food systems requires the ability to assess and reshape value chains holistically—from production and processing to consumption, losses and alternative uses (Fanzo et al., 2020). The Sustainable Food Chain Model (FCM) was developed to meet this need by offering a flexible, scientifically grounded modelling tool for scenario-based environmental assessment. Unlike conventional LCA software, the FCM acts as a system integrator, turning fragmented data into coherent, scalable food system models. By creating full value-chain scenarios (e.g. halving household food waste, reducing meat in foodservices, selecting the best valorisation option for food side streams), the model provides a basis for decision-making across policy, industry, and education. The FCM combines mass and energy flow analysis with life cycle assessment (LCA) and dedicated toolboxes e.g. for data harmonisation and scenario construction. The model accounts for product flows and environmental burdens at each stage of the food value chain, including the reasons for food losses, their classification into avoidable vs. unavoidable parts and their valorisation. This addresses a major research gap, as current studies often lack methodological consistency across food categories and countries (Tukker et al., 2006; Clark et al., 2020). The model originated from a doctoral thesis (Beretta, 2018) and has since supported several peer-reviewed publications, including a system-wide assessment of food waste in Switzerland (Beretta et al., 2019). In a recent case study, we compared 'chocolate' sweetened with upcycled cocoa pulp and sugar from different raw materials. While cocoa cultivation dominates the overall impact of chocolate, disaggregated results reveal that the choice of sweetening ingredient and energy source in processing are environmentally relevant. Using cocoa pulp can substantially reduce environmental impacts—but only if dried prior to transport and using renewable energy. This illustrates how the FCM can inform decision-making around the valorisation of food side streams—an area with significant ecological potential, yet often constrained by limited data on the environmental impacts of alternative utilisation pathways (Salvatore et al., 2024). The FCM is now being further developed as part of a Horizon Europe research project. This phase aims at fundamental advances in system modelling, including: - A "product basket" feature enabling users to simulate national consumption patterns, product portfolios, or menus—and prioritise interventions based on environmental outcomes. - A scenario inheritance mechanism, which allows complex variations (e.g. 100 yoghurt types) to inherit core structures from a base chain. Updates to inputs (e.g. milk) propagate automatically across all linked scenarios. - User-specific interfaces enabling collaborative scenario development and evaluation. Future expansions include integrating cost and nutrition data and exploring AI-assisted scenario generation—enabling assessments of environmental, health, and economic trade-offs in a unified platform. The FCM thus opens a new frontier in data-driven transformation of food systems.