Governance effects of zero-deforestation commitments: Evidence from Colombian beef-dairy and cacao supply chains

Voluntary zero-deforestation supply-chain commitments, or Zero Deforestation Agreements (ZDAs) as they are known in Colombia, have emerged as multi-stakeholder governance policies aimed at eliminating deforestation from agricultural supply chains. In 2020, such non-binding commitments for halting supply-chain deforestation were promoted globally through platforms such as the Tropical Forest Alliance (TFA). Yet evidence on what these policies achieve beyond measurable forest-cover outcomes remains scarce, particularly in post-conflict settings where structural drivers of deforestation extend well beyond commodity production. This paper examines the governance effects of ZDAs in Colombia across two contrasting supply chains, beef-dairy and cacao. To understand how ZDAs operate, we draw on three complementary strands of literature: polycentric governance, supply-chain sustainability initiatives, and policy mix theory. Drawing on a spatial analysis of municipal deforestation trends (2012–2024) and semi-structured interviews with stakeholders directly involved in the implementation of ZDAs, we assess how ZDAs operate through differentiated governance pathways. We find that, in the beef-dairy sector, ZDAs have fostered awareness, collaborative networks, and monitoring tools, but these gains remain insufficient to counteract structural deforestation drivers, including land speculation, supply-chain fragmentation, and weak enforcement. In the cacao sector, where production is largely forest-compatible, the ZDA has served primarily to consolidate low-deforestation production models, position Colombian cacao in international sustainability markets, and channel international cooperation resources linked to peacebuilding. We conclude that ZDAs should be understood as adaptive governance instruments whose effectiveness depends on their integration within broader policy mixes combining regulatory frameworks, economic incentives, and enforcement mechanisms.